While an alleged Danish draft proposal for a climate compromise caused furore among developing countries, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon expressed optimism that a robust agreement to combat climate change would be reached in Copenhagen.
“Danish text” raises furore
According to The Guardian, developing countries “react furiously” after a draft text allegedly written by the UN conference’s host country was leaked Tuesday.
For more than a week a rumour has circulated that Denmark, host of the ongoing UN conference on climate change, has drawn up a compromise text. On the afternoon of the conference’s second day, The Guardian published what it claimed to be this text. The British newspaper also claims to have read “a confidential analysis of the text by developing countries” which “shows deep unease”.
“You need to listen to all countries. That’s what democracy is about, and that’s what you have been cheering in Denmark. What your Prime Minister (Lars Løkke Rasmussen) does is contrary to the spirit of the developing aid, which Denmark has provided for Africa through many years,” Lumumba Stanislaus Di-Aping (photo above), chair of the Group of 77, mostly consisting of developing countries, tells Danish daily Politiken.
The draft on The Guardian’s website is headlined “The Copenhagen Agreement under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change”. It gives 2020 as the year in which global emissions should peak, while “acknowledging that developed countries collectively have peaked and that the timeframe will be longer for developing countries.” The text specifies that emissions from developed nations should be reduced by 80 percent by 2050 compared to 1990 levels. It also proposes for an interim reduction target for developed countries by 2020 to be set – meeting a key demand from developing countries. However, so far the figure is just given as “X” – meaning it will not be stated before the high level negotiations next week.
A critical issue in the UN negotiations has been whether or not certain developing countries should undertake commitments. Under the present agreement, The Kyoto Protocol, all developing countries are exempted from obligations, but industrialized countries have stressed that this is not feasible in the future. On this issue, the “Danish text” says that “developing countries, except the least developed which may contribute at their own discretion, commit to nationally appropriate mitigation actions.” These commitments are suggested to be given as a percentage – to be negotiated next week – which should be achieved by 2020. However, the percentage should not be compared to present levels, rather to a business-as-usual scenario.
According to The Guardian’s sources, developing countries are infelicitous about the new proposed division between the “least developed” and other developing nations. Another point of concern is the draft’s suggestion to transfer more control over the enforcement of the Copenhagen agreement from the UN administration – playing an absolute key role in the Kyoto Protocol – to the World Bank. This move would indirectly shift more control over to the industrialized world.
According to Danish daily Berlingske, the leak of the draft at this early stage of the conference is seen as unfortunate by European negotiators:
“It is incredibly inappropriate to have this document circulating on paper at this point. It should not have come out until next week,” an unnamed source in the delegation of a European country tells Berlingske.
According to Danish daily Jyllands-Posten, a press release from the Danish Climate Ministry denies that the text published by The Guardian is an official Danish proposal for a compromise text.
UNFCCC Executive Secretary Yvo de Boer comments in a press release: "This was an informal paper ahead of the conference given to a number of people for the purposes of consultations. The only formal texts in the UN process are the ones tabled by the Chairs of this Copenhagen conference at the behest of the Parties."
UN chief optimistic of robust climate deal
Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon predicted Tuesday that a robust agreement to combat climate change will be reached in Copenhagen and implemented immediately.
Ban said for the Copenhagen conference to be a success, the agreement must include ambitious reductions in carbon emissions by developed countries as well as ambitious actions by poorer developing countries to curb emissions. Rich nations must also provide financial support and technological assistance to help developing countries limit their emissions and adapt to the effects of climate change, including floods and drought, he said.
"This agreement will have an immediate operational effect as soon as it is agreed," Ban said.
The secretary-general's statement indicated that the UN wants the provisions in the political deal that will hopefully be reached in Copenhagen to be implemented quickly, without waiting for a legally binding treaty to be negotiated next year.
The UN chief said an agreement is likely between developed and developing countries on 10 billion US dollars in "short-term, fast-track" financing to help poorer countries until 2012. Financial support beyond that will be discussed at Copenhagen and beyond, he said.
Ban said he will open the high-level segment of the Copenhagen conference on Dec. 15 and expects 105 world leaders to attend the final sessions on Dec. 17-18 to push for an agreement. He singled out President Barack Obama, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.
"Never have so many different nations of all size and economic status made so many firm pledges together," he said. "We must seize this moment, and continue pushing for still higher ambition."
"This will be crucially important for the future of humanity, and even for the planet Earth," Ban said.
Top UN scientist: What Climategate?
In harsh wording Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the IPCC, defends British colleagues whose hacked emails have ignited debate over the credibility of mainstream climate science.
The hacking of emails from a leading British climate research centre is a “terrible and illegal act”, according to Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) advising the UN negotiations on climate.
“I think this is an illegal act. The only issue that has to be dealt with as far as this occurrence is concerned is to find out who is behind it,” Mr. Pachauri told a press conference according to AFP.
The emails were hacked from computers at the University of East Anglia. As some of the emails seem to reflect attempts by mainstream scientists to block publication of articles by dissenting researchers, the affair has been dubbed “Climategate” by the media. This is a highly misleading phrase according to Rajendra Pachauri:
“One can only surmise that those who have carried out this act have done it with the very clear intention as to influence the process in Copenhagen – but, barring a few isolated voices, people over here are totally convinced of the solidity of the findings of the IPCC report.”
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon concurs: “Nothing that has come out in the public as a result of the recent email hackings has cast doubt on the basic scientific message on climate change and that message is quite clear – that climate is changing much, much faster than we realized and we human beings are the primary cause,” Ban Ki-moon states, according to Reuters.
Study: Few climate refugees leave their countries
Afghanistan, Bangladesh, several West African, South East Asian and Central American countries may become future international migration hotspots.
The study, which was released on the second day of the climate change conference in Copenhagen, estimates that between 25 million and one billion people could be driven from their homes over the next four decades, but only few of these "climate refugees" would be able to leave their countries due to lacking the means and the ability to travel to wealthier places, Reuters reports.
"In general, countries expect to manage environmental migration internally, with the exception of small island states that in some cases have already led to islands disappearing under water, forcing international migration," the reports states.
Potential future hotspots for international migration are also identified. These are countries which have high emigration rates, face enormous socio-economic challenges, and which experience significant slow-onset climate-related disasters of which have an impact on issues such as food security. They include Afghanistan, Bangladesh, most of Central America, several West African and South East Asian countries, amongst others.
The study emphasizes that the persistent lack of data on migration and climate change/environmental degradation is a major obstacle in having a clearer picture on the issue and in planning ahead.
No doubt: The earth is warming
The British Met Office has released world-wide temperature data into the public domain to give evidence that the globe is warming.
According to Reuters, the Met Office Hadley Centre has published the data to increase transparency and support evidence that the globe is warming.
The release is a response to the series of leaked e-mails from the University of East Anglia. The e-mails indicated that some climate experts were suppressing others' data to enhance their own, Reuters reports.
The Met Office will continue to put as much of the station temperature record as possible into the public domain. When international approvals are in place, the remaining station records – around 5,000 in total – will be released.
Bangladesh asks for 15 percent of any climate fund
Even before any climate adaptation fund has seen the light of day, Bangladesh makes substantial demands.
"The population of our one coastal district is bigger than the entire population of all island countries and in that consideration at least 15 percent of any climate fund should come to us," State Minister of Environment and Forest Hasan Mahmud told a news conference, according to Reuters.
Hasan Mahmud emphasized that Bangladesh is the most vulnerable country in the world to climate change, Reuters reports.
"We are not begging any mercy from anyone. Rather we want justice as the worst victim of climate change," said Qazi Kholiquzzaman Ahmad, a leading economist, who is also part of the Bangladesh climate negotiation team.
France wants financial tax in climate accord
France is pushing for a political agreement at the climate conference in Copenhagen to include a tax on financial transactions to help developing countries, Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner says.
Kouchner says a very small tax — 0.005 percent on financial transactions — would help developing countries fight poverty, promote education and health, and meet the costs of combatting climate change.
Such a tax on all financial movements would be "impossible to feel," he says, explaining that it produces just 5 cents "on a movement of a thousand dollars, a thousand euros."
Kouchner says that France has been working on the tax idea for a year and hosted a conference in Paris in October with 59 countries as well as financial and economic experts to put together a proposal.
He concedes there is some opposition, even in liberal countries, but he predicts "all the people of the world will accept this kind of contribution."
"It will be done, believe me, it will be done. I don't know when. But I know that we (have) to rebalance the responsibility and the sufferings in this world," Kouchner says. "If it comes through this conference (in Copenhagen) it will be a big, big, big, big benefit."
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon expresses hope that the French proposal "will be discussed in Copenhagen as a way to generate financial support in addition to public fundings to be provided by the governments."
The secretary-general says that with 105 world leaders expected on Dec. 18, there is momentum to reach a strong political agreement in Copenhagen.
"The more ambitious, the stronger agreement we have in Copenhagen, the easier, the quicker the process we will have to a legally binding treaty in 2010, as early as possible," Ban says
Gordon Brown: Go for a 30 percent cut
British Prime Minister urges EU to lay the cards on the table.
"It's not enough to say, 'I may do this, I might do that, possibly I'll do this'. I want to create a situation in which the European Union is persuaded to go to 30 percent," Gordon Brown tells The Guardian.
"We've got to make countries recognize that they have to be as ambitious as they say they want to be," he added.
So far, the EU has pledged to cut emissions to 20 percent below 1990 levels by 2020 and to deepen that cut to 30 percent if there is an "ambitious" deal in Copenhagen.
Before the start of the climate change conference in Copenhagen, the Environment Commissioner of the European Union, Stavros Dimas, urged Europe to set a good example by agreeing to cut emissions by 30 percent from 1990 levels
Source>http://en.cop15.dk/news/view+news?newsid=2891
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